The dosage index is a metric calculated from a horse’s ancestry to quantify the horse’s likely stamina and optimum racing distance. It uses stamina and speed influences from a horse’s bloodlines and produces a dosage index and centre of distribution figure that indicate the likely best trip for a horse.
The higher the dosage index and centre of distribution figures, the shorter the predicted best distance for a horse.
#11 90/90
Pedigree: Gun Runner - Easy Tap, by Tapit
Dosage Profile: 1-4-7-0-0
Dosage Index / CD: 2.43 0.50
2022 Record: 2 Starts: 1 - 0 - 1, $69,750
Disarm broke his maiden in his second start at Saratoga. He made his 2023 finishing second in an allowance at Oaklawn then finished second in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Needed a few more points to get in the Derby, so shipped to Keeneland to finish 3rd in the Lexington Stakes (G3) for his final Derby prep.
#12 90/85
Pedigree: Quality Road - Out Post, by Silver Deputy
Dosage Profile: 2-2-6-0-0
Dosage Index / CD: 2.33 0.60
2022 Record: 4 Starts: 2 - 0 - 1, $126,800
Jace's Road won his debut at Ellis Park before finishing third in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) and eighth in the Street Sense Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs. He closed out 2022 winning the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds, then came back in January to finish 5th in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn. For his final prep he finished third in the Louisiana Derby (G2).
#13 89/89
Pedigree: Into Mischief - Greenfield D'Oro, by Medaglia D'Oro
Dosage Profile: 2-3-2-1-0
Dosage Index / CD: 3.00 0.75
2022 Record: 2 Starts: 1 - 0 - 1, $66,000
Sun Thunder won at second asking at Oaklawn Park on New Year's Eve before finishing fourth in the Southwest Stakes (G3). Shipped to Fair Grounds he was second in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and fifth in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Finished fourth in the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland for his final prep.
#14 94/94
Pedigree: Classic Empire - Armony's Angel, by To Honor and Serve
Dosage Profile: 4-4-2-0-0
Dosage Index / CD: 9.00 1.20
2022 Record: 3 Starts: 2 - 0 - 0, $43,000
Angel of Empire won his debut at Horseshoe Indianapolis before finishing sixth in an allowance over the Kentucky Downs turf, then returned to Horseshoe to win an allowance in November. He started 2023 with a second place finish in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn before winning both the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds and the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn.
#15 100/95
Pedigree: Violence - Queen Caroline, by Blame
Dosage Profile: 4-4-5-1-0
Dosage Index / CD: 3.00 0.70
2022 Record: 5 Starts: 4 - 0 - 0, $1,595,150
Forte broke his maiden in his first start at Belmont Park. After a 4th place finish in the
Sanford Stakes (G3), he won 4 straight stakes races including the
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). He made his 2023 debut winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and won the
Florida Derby (G1) for his final Derby prep.
#16 90/89
Pedigree: Violence - Lemon Belle, by Lemon Drop Kid
Dosage Profile: 5-4-8-3-0
Dosage Index / CD: 1.86 0.55
2022 Record: 4 Starts: 1 - 1 - 1, $99,924
Raise Cain broke his maiden at second asking at Keeneland before finishing third in the Bowman Mill Stakes. He then finished second in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds and was fifth in the Leonatus Stakes at Turfway. He shipped to Aqueduct to win the
Gotham (G3) as a 23-1 longshot. Finished fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland for his final prep.
#17 ?/? Ran mostly on Turf maybe 1st time on Dirt...
Nine horses have found their way into the Derby after winning the
UAE Derby, which, though it is on dirt, features many horses with turf backgrounds in Europe.
Of the nine UAE Derby winners to contest the Kentucky Derby, six had raced on turf, four of which were winners. None finished closer than the initial runner, China Visit, who finished sixth. Lines of Battle was group three placed in Ireland before finishing seventh at Churchill Downs; while Daddy Long Legs and
Thunder Snow– both group winners – didn’t even finish the Derby.
Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits - Amour Poesie (JPN), by Neo Universe (JPN)
Dosage Profile: 1-1-2-0-0
Dosage Index / CD: 3.00 0.75
2022 Record: 6 Starts: 3 - 0 - 1, $432,164
Derma Sotogake broke his maiden in his fourth start last year in Japan, then won the Mochinoki Sho and Zennippon Nisai Yushun. He made his 2023 debut finishing third in the
Saudi Derby (G3) then won the
UAE Derby (G2) for his final prep.
#18 91/86
Pedigree: Into Mischief - Tension, by Tapit
Dosage Profile: 1-4-3-0-0
Dosage Index / CD: 4.33 0.75
2022 Record: 4 Starts: 1 - 1 - 0, $99,388
Rocket Can broke his maiden in his third start last year at Churchill Downs, then was second in an allowance. He made his 2023 debut winning the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park, then was second in the Fountain of Youth (G2). He shipped to Oaklawn to finish fourth in the Arkansas Derby (G1) for his final prep
#19 93/93
Pedigree: Curlin - Lady Esme, by Majestic Warrior
Dosage Profile: 5-6-9-0-0
Dosage Index / CD: 3.44 0.80
2022 Record: 1 Starts: 1 - 0 - 0, $24,000
Lord Miles broke his maiden in his only start last year at Gulfstream Park. He made his 2023 debut finishing third in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park then finished sixth in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3). He shipped to Tampa Bay and finished fifth in the
Tampa Bay Derby then shipped to New York to win the
Wood Memorial (G1) as a huge longshot for his final prep.
#20 ?/?
Pedigree: Drefong - Pan de Ring (JPN), by King Kamehameha (JPN)
Dosage Profile: 2-1-9-2-0
Dosage Index / CD: 1.15 0.21
2022 Record: 3 Starts: 2 - 1 - 0, $192,889
Continuar broke his maiden in his first start in Japan then finished 2nd in the Machinoki Sho and won the Cattleya Stakes. He made his 2023 debut finishing 5th in the
Saudi Derby (G3) then was third in the
UAE Derby (G2). His connections accepted the Road to the Kentucky Derby invitation for Japan.
Bottom line put a little money on #7 he is GRAY and a Baffert Trained. Good luck with your plays my play is.....
